Catatan Baca: Predictably Irrational (Dan Ariely)
Judul: Predictably Irrational, The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions (Revised and Expanded Edition)
Penulis: Dan Ariely
Penerbit: Harper Collins
Rating: 10/10
Buku yang membahas tentang behavioral economics dengan pembahasan yang mudah dipahami. Apa saja faktor dan bias yang memengaruhi manusia saat mengambil keputusan, dan mengapa kita perlu berhati-hati dan mencari strategi untuk mengatasi momen-momen irasional yang sering muncul ini?
Mengapa membaca buku ini?
Desember 2020 saya membaca Thinking, Fast and Slow-nya Daniel Kahneman dan mendiskusikannya dengan beberapa pembaca lain. Dari situ, masih ada rasa penasaran tentang tema yang mirip. Ada pembaca yang mengulas TFaS di Amazon dan juga merekomendasikan Predictably Irrational ini. Jadilah buku ini masuk ke dalam pilihan sebagai buku bacaan berikutnya.
Ulasan Buku
Kalau diibaratkan orang, Predictably Irrational ini bisa bikin naksir pada pandangan pertama. Pengertian iya, pintar iya, lucu pula! Dari beberapa halaman bab pertama saya udah bisa bilang, “Wah, klik nih kita.”
Buku Dan Ariely ini membahas behavioral economics dan science, apa yang memengaruhi judgment dan decision making manusia. Saat berbicara tentang ilmu ekonomi, kita mungkin sudah tahu beberapa teori dasarnya. Kalau menemukan situasi X, harus mengambil keputusan XX, karena secara teori dan hitung-hitungan, itu yang paling masuk akal dan benar. Nah, behavioral economics ini menekankan ke manusianya. Sebagai manusia, kita makhluk irasional dan sering kena bias. Kita bisa melibatkan faktor-faktor yang semestinya tidak perlu dilibatkan untuk mengambil keputusan, dan nggak menyadarinya. Dan Ariely bilang, perilaku irasional ini bukanlah sesuatu yang random, melainkan sistematik dan bisa ditebak.
“Our irrational behaviors are neither random nor senseless—they are systematic and predictable. We all make the same types of mistakes over and over, because of the basic wiring of our brains.”
“Wouldn’t economics make a lot more sense if it were based on how people actually behave, instead of how they should behave?”
Bagi pembaca yang baru pertama kali terpapar dengan behavioral economics, buku ini sangat bersahabat karena bahasanya yang ringan, mudah dipahami, dan LUCU. Menurut saya, akan ada banyak pembaca yang bisa konek dengan buku ini. Kamu nggak perlu jadi bos besar, pebisnis, akademisi, pembuat kebijakan, atau trader saham dulu supaya bisa relate dengan isi bukunya karena penulis menyoroti kehidupan sehari-hari manusia. Banyak contoh, dan usul yang dia berikan untuk skenario saat bersosialisasi ataupun saat kita bertemu dengan pilihan (ketemu mertua, dating, sampai pilih paket subscription).
Ada beberapa bab yang diberikan refleksi di bagian akhirnya. Sebagai pembaca, saya suka susunan buku non-fiksi seperti ini. Setelah melahap berbagai informasi yang disajikan, saya seperti diajak untuk turunkan “gigi”, pelankan sebentar kecepatan baca (saking serunya jadi mau ngebut mulu), review, dan cek ulang.
Memang nggak bisa dipungkiri, saat baca Predictably Irrational, otomatis saya jadi teringat dengan Thinking, Fast and Slow-nya Daniel Kahneman, dan Misbehaving-nya Richard Thaler. Beberapa pembahasan yang ada di buku ini punya esensi yang sama sehingga saat dibaca udah nggak ada sense of enlightment-nya. Namun, buku ini malah jadi cara menyenangkan untuk recall, mengulang, dan memeriksa apa yang diingat sekaligus apa yang sudah dilakukan. Seperti yang saya sebutkan di atas; Dan Ariely ini bisa merangkul lebih banyak lapisan pembaca dengan menyoroti peristiwa yang terasa dekat. Ini membantu banget saat connecting the dots, mikir, cari cara yang cocok, dan coba mengaplikasikan tips-nya ke kehidupan sehari-hari.
Buat kalian yang mau tahu lebih banyak tentang judgment and decision making (JDM), buat yang terintimidasi dengan tebalnya TFaS, Predictably Irrational adalah buku yang sangat saya rekomendasikan. One of the books I’ve read so far!
Apa yang bisa dicoba setelah membaca buku ini?
Selesai baca, dan setelah tahu berbagai informasi, buku ini mengajak pembacanya untuk memikirkan dan mendesain strategi yang bisa dan perlu dilakukan. Apa next actions yang bisa dirancang dan dilakukan untuk mengurangi momen-momen irasional ini?
Buat jadi kebiasaan untuk mempertanyakan perilaku dan perspektif yang dipunya. Ini bisa saya libatkan saat nulis jurnal.
Pasang reminder, pakai atau bikin sistem yang sesuai dengan rutinitas yang bisa membantu untuk mengurangi momen-momen irasional ini. Misalnya: Di kerjaan, saya bisa bikin checklist yang perlu dicek dan run through satu per satu sebelum memutuskan tema besar yang mau diturunkan ke beberapa sub-divisi yang ada. Contoh lain: Taruh reminder nominal sisa bujet belanja. Pasang widget reminder di layar pertama handphone, supaya langsung terbaca setiap kali buka dan nahan belanja. Ingin cashflow nggak minus saat mau liburan dua tahun lagi (semoga pandemi kelar yhalord)? Pakai autodebit dari sekarang buat mindahin sebagian penghasilan ke sinking fund.
Selalu double check, triple check keputusan yang diambil, apalagi yang menyangkut dengan orang banyak. Contoh: Strategi marketing untuk memasarkan produk yang dijual apakah jatuhnya jadi memanipulasi orang lain ke arah yang negatif, atau merupakan nudge yang mendorong orang mengambil keputusan yang sebenarnya lebih baik buat hidupnya?
Saling menjaga orang-orang terdekat. Kita nggak akan bisa pakai mode rasional 100% setiap saat setiap detik. Akan sangat terbantu kalau punya orang-orang (di lingkup keluarga, pertemanan, dan pekerjaaan) yang bisa sama-sama diajak untuk saling menjaga dari bias dan berbagai macam bentuk irasional yang kalau dituruti terus bisa panjang dan bikin lelah “beres-beresnya”.
Siapa yang (sepertinya) bisa mendapatkan keuntungan dari membaca buku ini?
Semua orang. Selama kamu mengeluarkan uang untuk membeli sesuatu, menghadapi berbagai macam pilihan, dan perlu mengambil keputusan entah itu di ranah personal maupun profesional, buku ini bisa menambah bekal pemahaman yang diperlukan.
Buku lain yang bisa dibaca setelah Predictably Irrational:
Baca sesuai urutan ini bakal lebih enak:
Thinking, Fast and Slow (Daniel Kahneman)
Misbehaving (Richard Thaler)
Nudge (Richard Thaler dan Cass Sunstein)
Video
Pindahin beberapa kutipan dari buku sambil jajal warna-warna Zebra Sarasa Vintage :D
Highlights
Chapter 1: The Truth About Relativity
“We don’t even know what we want to do with our lives—until we find a relative or a friend who is doing just what we think we should be doing. Everything is relative, and that’s the point.” ← Ini yang saya sebut di tulisan “Buku Fisik vs Buku Digital, Pilih yang Mana?”
“We are always looking at the things around us in relation to others. We can’t help it. This holds true not only for physical things—toasters, bicycles, puppies, restaurant entrées, and spouses—but for experiences such as vacations and educational options, and for ephemeral things as well: emotions, attitudes, and points of view.” ← Mau punya imun untuk nggak membandingkan diri dengan orang lain pun menurut saya nggak akan bisa. Yang bisa dikontrol ya cobalah. Misalnya, unfollow akun yang sering menggoyah iman :))
“Relativity is (reletively) easy to understand. But there’s one aspect of relativity that consistently trips us up. It’s this: we not only tend to compare things with one another but also tend to focus on comparing things that are easily comparable—and avoid comparing things that cannot be compared easily.” ← Teringat Thinking, Fast and Slow-nya Daniel Kahneman. System 1 yang ambil setir, pilih yang gampang; membandingkan yang kelihatan, membandingkan yang gampang dibandingkan, sementara System 2 nggak dipaksa untuk berfungsi.
Chapter 2: The Fallacy of Supply and Demand
“Our first decisions resonate over a long sequence of decisions. First impressions are important, whether they involve remembering that our first DVD player cost much more than such players cost today (and realizing that, in comparison, the current prices are a steal) or remembering that gas was once a dollar a gallon, which makes every trip to the gas station a painful experience. In all these cases the random, and not so random, anchors that we encountered along the way and were swayed by remain with us long after the initial decision itself.” ← Impresi pertama bisa jadi penentu keputusan manusia. Nggak hanya untuk transaksi atau aktivitas yang melibatkan uang di dalamnya, buat saya ini juga memengaruhi aspek sosial. Contoh: Impresi pertama yang saya tangkap dari seseorang, memengaruhi bagaimana saya akan menanggapi atau berkomunikasi dengannya. Padahal, impresi pertama belum tentu mutlak dan bisa dijadikan indikator yang terus dipegang.
“This must be a good restaurant,” you think to yourself. “People are standing in line.” So you stand behind these people. Another person walks by. He sees three people standing in line and thinks, “This must be a fantastic restaurant,” and joins the line. Others join. We call this type of behavior herding. It happens when we assume that something is good (or bad) on the basis of other people’s previous behavior, and our own actions follow suit.” ← Ngakak banget baca ini. Sialaaan.
“But there’s also another kind of herding, one that we call self-herding. This happens when we believe something is good (or bad) on the basis of our own previous behavior.” ← Terkadang kalau udah merasa paling benar sendiri, keputusan yang diambil udah terkontaminasi dengan bias. Nggak gampang memang, tapi perlu coba untuk self-review secara berkala, dan kalau memang ada yang perlu diubah, admit it, learn to let go the old beliefs, create the change, do it. Ini bisa di-include saat journaling, weekly review, monthly review, atau PM reflection buat yang suka nulis jurnal malam.
“With everything you do, in fact, you should train yourself to question your repeated behaviors.” ← Homework.
Chapter 3: The Cost of Zero Cost
“What is it about zero cost that we find so irresistible? Why does FREE! make us so happy? After all, FREE! can lead us into trouble: things that we would never consider purchasing become incredibly appealing as soon as they are FREE!” → Sering terjadi, khususnya kalau barang yang diberi label gratis ini memang masuk dalam kategori yang disuka. Misalnya, beli skin care A yang dipakaikan bundle yang ada gratis sample atau mini size produk skin care lain (lebih mahal daripada beli satuan). Padahal, mini size itu nggak gitu kepakai karena toh nggak pergi ke mana-mana juga sekarang. Atau, free event yang sebenarnya nggak gitu kepengin buat ditonton, tapi karena ada gratisnya, jadi nonton juga. Padahal, waktu yang dihabiskan nonton free event itu bisa dipakai untuk melakukan hal lain yang lebih berfaedah.
“Most transactions have an upside and a downside, but when something is FREE! we forget the downside. FREE! gives us such an emotional charge that we perceive what is being offered as immensely more valuable than it really is. Why? I think it’s because humans are intrinsically afraid of loss. The real allure of FREE! is tied to this fear.” ← Loss aversion yang sering bikin manusia irasional.
“We learned from our experiments that we all get a bit too excited when something is free! and that consequently, we can make decisions that are not in our best interest.” ← Apa yang gratis, belum tentu ada gunanya.
Chapter 4: The Cost of Social Norms
“Social norms are wrapped up in our social nature and our need for community. They are usually warm and fuzzy. […] The second world, the one governed by market norms, is very different. There’s nothing warm and fuzzy about it. The exchanges are sharp-edged: wages, prices, rents, interest, and costs-and-benefits. […] When you are in the domain of market norms, you get what you pay for—that’s just the way it is.” ← Dua zona yang berbeda, dan nggak bisa dicampur aduk jadi satu.
“[…] once market norms enter our considerations, the social norms depart.” ← Nggak bisa bolak-balik. Karena manusia yang merasa lagi di zona social norms akan terus ingat momen saat market norms itu masuk. Sekali udah masuk, seperti udah kasih cap permanen dan zona social norms itu nggak lagi bebas dari market norms.
“When you’re in a restaurant with a date, for heaven’s sake don’t mention the price of the selections. Yes, they’re printed clearly on the menu. Yes, this might be an opportunity to impress your date with the caliber of the restaurant. But if you rub it in, you’ll be likely to shift your relationship from the social to the market norm. […] That’s the price you have to pay, though, to keep your relationships in the social domain and away from market norms.” ← :)) ketawa mpe nangis.
Chapter 5: The Power of Free Cookie
“Once money is introduced into the exchange, you stop thinking about what’s socially right and wrong, and you simply want to maximize your cookie intake.” ← Perbandingan kalau ada teman yang nawarin cookie di kantor. Kalau gratis, kita ngambilnya satu atau secukupnya saja karena mikirin teman-teman kantor yang lain, dan ada rasa nggak enakan kalau ngambil banyak. Beda kalau dari awal ditawarin ini harga satu cookie-nya Rpx.xxx. Begitu ada harga yang dipasang, kita bisa ngerasa sah-sah aja mau langsung beli banyak dan nggak kasih kesempatan buat yang lain karena ada barter barang dan uang di situ.
“when price is not a part of the exchange, we become less selfish maximizers and start caring more about the welfare of others.”
“As it turns out, we are caring social animals, but when the rules of the game involve money, this tendency is muted.”
Chapter 6: The Influence of Arousal
“Prevention, protection, conservatism, and morality disappeared completely from the radar screen. They were simply unable to predict the degree to which passion would change them.” ← Di bab ini diperkenalkan “hot” and “cold” state. Apa yang kita kira akan dilakukan saat berada dalam cold state bisa dilupakan sepenuhnya saat kita ada di hot state.
“we all systematically underpredict the degree to which arousal completely negates our superego, and the way emotions can take control of our behavior.”
“avoiding temptation altogether is easier than overcoming it.” → Perlu merancang sistem dan pengingat untuk mencegah.
Chapter 7: The Problem of Procrastination and Self-Control
“Giving up on our long-term goals for immediate gratification, my friends, is procrastination.” → ouch.
“We have problems with self-control, related to immediate and delayed gratification—no doubt there. But each of the problems we face has potential self-control mechanisms, as well. If we can’t save from our paycheck, we can take advantage of our employer’s automatic deduction option; if we don’t have the will to exercise regularly alone, we can make an appointment to exercise in the company of our friends. These are the tools that we can commit to in advance, and they may help us be the kind of people we want to be.” ← Harus sadar masalahnya di mana buat tahu “tools” apa yang diperlukan.
“By pairing something that we love with something that we dislike but that is good for us, we might be able to harness desire with outcome—and thus overcome some of the problems with self-control we face every day.” ← Mirip seperti konsep habit stacking dari Atomic Habits.
Chapter 8: The High Price of Ownership
“Do you wonder why we often refuse to sell some of our cherished clutter, and if somebody offers to buy it, we attach an exorbitant price tag to it? As soon as we begin thinking about giving up our valued possessions, we are already mourning the loss.” ← Haduh. Seperti seseorang yang dulu nggak rela melepas koleksi bukunya ya ini :))
“Ownership is not limited to material things. It can also apply to points of view. Once we take ownership of an idea—whether it’s about politics or sports—what do we do? We love it perhaps more than we should. We prize it more than it is worth. And most frequently, we have trouble letting go of it because we can’t stand the idea of its loss. What are we left with then? An ideology—rigid and unyielding.” ← Bisa juga muncul saat mengidolakan seseorang atau suatu grup. Sebagai penggemar BTS, jadi seakan diingatkan sih saat baca ini. Menyadari batas antara nge-fans dengan mengagung-agungkan memang perlu ditarik garis pembatasnya.
“There is no known cure for the ills of ownership. As Adam Smith said, it is woven into our lives. But being aware of it might help. Everywhere around us we see the temptation to improve the quality of our lives by buying a larger home, a second car, a new dishwasher, a lawn mower, and so on. But, once we change our possessions we have a very hard time going back down. As I noted earlier, ownership simply changes our perspective.” ← Sekali upgrade gaya hidup, susah buat tetap sederhana. Makanya banyak orang yang gajinya naik, tapi tabungan dan investasinya nggak ikut naik.
Chapter 9: Keeping Doors Open
“What is it about options that is so difficult for us? Why do we feel compelled to keep as many doors open as possible, even at great expen
Consequences of not deciding = focusing too much on the similarities and minor differences between two things. ← Bisa jadi nggak gerak-gerak, atau malah nggak bisa maksimal sama sekali di salah satunya karena sibuk membandingkan hal-hal yang bisa diabaikan/nggak terlalu besar dampaknya.
“Sumi and I pondered how the two options would fit in with the kind of life we wanted for ourselves. Before long, I was getting so engrossed in this decision that my academic research and productivity began to suffer. Ironically, as I searched for the best place to do my work, my research was being neglected.” ← Mirip seperti riset sebelum bikin konten. Riset mulu, kapan bikinnya?
Chapter 10: The Power of Expectations
“if you tell people up front that something might be distasteful, the odds are good that they will end up agreeing with you—not because their experience tells them so but because of their expectations.” → “Makan siang hari ini nggak enak.” atau “Buku yang ini gue kurang cocok deh.” → couldn’t help it, ada ekspektasi yang muncul setelah dengar itu.
“Expectations, of course, are not limited to food. When you invite people to a movie, you can increase their enjoyment by mentioning that it got great reviews. This is also essential for building the reputation of a brand or product. That’s what marketing is all about—providing information that will heighten someone’s anticipated and real pleasure. But do expectations created by marketing really change our enjoyment?” ← Perlu kembali lagi ke perusahaan dan orang-orang yang punya power untuk mengambil keputusan. Punya produk/servis/jasa yang bagus dan pakai marketing untuk memperkenalkan dan membangun antusiasmenya? Wajar. Produk/servis/jasa biasa aja tapi gombal abis di strategi marketing-nya? People will notice sooner or later.
“When stripping away our preconceptions and our previous knowledge is not possible, perhaps we can at least acknowledge that we are all biased. If we acknowledge that we are trapped within our perspective, which partially blinds us to the truth, we may be able to accept the idea that conflicts generally require a neutral third party—who has not been tainted with our expectations—to set down the rules and regulations. Of course, accepting the word of a third party is not easy and not always possible; but when it is possible, it can yield substantial benefits. And for that reason alone, we must continue to try.” ← Pentingnya punya orang-orang, inner circle, dan hubungan yang solid antar divisi. Yang terakhir ini konteksnya memang lebih ke pekerjaan. Kalau antar divisi bisa saling kasih feedback and input, dan bisa menyadarkan divisi lainnya saat kena bias, itu akan membantu sekali.
Chapter 11: The Power of Price
“The truth is that placebos run on the power of suggestion. They are effective because people believe in them. You see your doctor and you feel better. You pop a pill and you feel better.”
“Thus familiarity may or may not breed contempt, but it definitely breeds expectations. Branding, packaging, and the reassurance of the caregiver can make us feel better. But what about price? Can the price of a drug also affect our response to it?”
“for people who had experienced more pain, and thus depended more on pain medications, the relationship was more pronounced: they got even less benefit when the price was discounted. When it comes to medicines, then, we learned that you get what you pay for. Price can change the experience.” ← Obat yang mahal dianggap lebih manjur daripada obat yang lebih murah. Yang lebih dipercaya pun yang lebih mahal, dan ini nggak hanya untuk obat.
Chapter 12: The Cycle of Distrust
“Today, psychologists, economists and environmentalists use the phrase “the tragedy of the commons” to describe the same basic principle: when we use a common resource at a rate that is slower than the rate at which it replenishes, all is well. However, if a few individuals get greedy and use more than their share, the system of consumption becomes unsustainable, and in the long term, everybody loses. In essence, the tragedy of the commons is about two competing human interests. On one hand, an individual should care about the sustainability of shared resources in the long term because everyone, including the individual, benefits from it. At the same time, in the short term, the individual benefits immediately from taking more than his or her fair share. (Social scientists refer to such betrayers of social contracts as “defectors.”)”
“The current energy crisis is another example of the tragedy of the commons. Although there is a finite amount of fossil fuel in the world, some countries, industries, businesses, and individuals use far more than others while making little effort to minimize their impact on the common pool.” → Bisa baca On Fire, Naomi Klein kalau mau tahu lebih banyak tentang isu ini.
“When we all cooperate, trust is high and the total value to society is maximal. But distrust is infectious. When we see people defect by lying in their advertisements, proposing scams, etc., we start acting similarly; trust deteriorates, and everybody loses, including the individuals who initially gained from their selfish acts.” ← Tiap orang, tiap perusahaan, tiap institusi, tiap lembaga punya tanggung jawab. Apa yang diperbuat satu orang/perusahaan/institusi/lembaga, bisa memengaruhi yang lain.
Chapter 13: The Context of Our Character, Part 1
“This is my take. We care about honesty and we want to be honest. The problem is that our internal honesty monitor is active only when we contemplate big transgressions, like grabbing an entire box of pens from the conference hall. For the little transgressions, like taking a single pen or two pens, we don’t even consider how these actions would reflect on our honesty and so our superego stays asleep. Without the superego’s help, monitoring, and managing of our honesty, the only defense we have against this kind of transgression is a rational cost-benefit analysis. But who is going to consciously weigh the benefits of taking a towel from a hotel room versus the cost of being caught?” ← Tebang pilih pelanggaran. Yang kecil nggak apa-apa, yang besar baru terasa. We’re irrational creatures indeed.
“when we are removed from any benchmarks of ethical thought, we tend to stray into dishonesty. But if we are reminded of morality at the moment we are tempted, then we are much more likely to be honest.” ← Peran agama muncul di sini.
Chapter 14: The Context of Our Character, Part 2
We can rationalize our dishonesty when it is one step away from cash real fast. ← Dan bisa nggak sadar saat melakukannya.
“We can hope to surround ourselves with good, moral people, but we have to be realistic. Even good people are not immune to being partially blinded by their own minds. This blindness allows them to take actions that bypass their own moral standards on the road to financial rewards. In essence, motivation can play tricks on us whether or not we are good, moral people.”
Chapter 15: Beer and Free Lunches
“people are sometimes willing to sacrifice the pleasure they get from a particular consumption experience in order to project a certain image to others. When people order food and drinks, they seem to have two goals: to order what they will enjoy most and to portray themselves in a positive light in the eyes of their friends.”
“Standard economics assumes that we are rational—that we know all the pertinent information about our decisions, that we can calculate the value of the different options we face, and that we are cognitively unhindered in weighing the ramifications of each potential choice. […] But, as the results presented in this book (and others) show, we are all far less rational in our decision making than standard economic theory assumes. Our irrational behaviors are neither random nor senseless—they are systematic and predictable. We all make the same types of mistakes over and over, because of the basic wiring of our brains. So wouldn’t it make sense to modify standard economics and move away from naive psychology, which often fails the tests of reason, introspection, and—most important—empirical scrutiny?”